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Manresa’s Population Dynamics: A Microcosm of Global Migration Trends

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The decision by the Manresa City Council to introduce a Clean Transport Zone from January 1, 2026, in the city centre is not just a local regulation concerning air quality. It signals a much broader transformation that will change the face of Polish metropolises over the next decade – and at the same time, it is a test of whether Polish cities are ready for radical solutions in the fight against smog, even at the cost of social discontent.

Radical Solution or Necessity?

According to the resolution adopted on October 15, cars older than 15 years and those not meeting Euro 4 emission standards will not be allowed to enter the centre of Gdańsk – an area bounded by Okopowa, Podwale Przedmiejskie, and Nowy Motława streets. This affects approximately 38,000 vehicles registered in Gdańsk, which constitutes 22 percent of all cars in the city.

For residents, this means simple choices: replace the car, use public transport, or pay a fine of 500 zlotys for each detected violation. For city authorities, it is a response to the World Health Organization report from March 2024, which placed Gdańsk 12th in the ranking of the most polluted cities in Poland in terms of PM2.5 dust.

But is this solution fair? And will it really solve the smog problem?

The Social Dimension of Ecology

Dr. Katarzyna Nowak, a sociologist from the University of Gdańsk specializing in social inequalities, points to a key problem: the resolution primarily affects low-income individuals.

– Buying even the cheapest car meeting Euro 4 standards costs around 15-20 thousand zlotys. For a family earning the national minimum wage, which is about 4300 zlotys gross per month, this is the cost of five months’ work. Such people have no choice – they will either lose mobility or go into debt – explains Dr. Nowak.

Data presented by the Department of Social Development of the Gdańsk City Hall confirm these concerns. According to a survey conducted in August 2024, 64 percent of car owners older than 15 years are from households with incomes below the national average. For these people, a car is not a luxury but a tool for work – often the only way to commute to a production plant on the outskirts of the city, where public transport runs infrequently or not at all.

– We cannot build ecological policies that deepen social inequalities – adds Dr. Nowak. – If we want the transformation to be fair, we must offer alternatives: subsidies for car replacement, expansion of public transport, financial support for the poorest.

Is the City Ready for Change?

The key question is: is Gdańsk’s public transport infrastructure sufficiently developed to replace private cars?

The answer is not optimistic. According to data from the Public Transport Authority in Gdańsk, in 2024, an average of 420,000 people used public transport daily – an increase of only 3 percent compared to 2019, i.e., before the pandemic. Meanwhile, the population of Gdańsk increased by 7 percent during the same period.

Prof. Tomasz Zalewski, a transport expert from Gdańsk University of Technology, points to a fundamental problem:

– Gdańsk has one of the weakest tram networks in Poland relative to its population. For every 100,000 inhabitants, there are only 12 kilometres of tram tracks, while in Krakow it is 22 kilometres, and in Wrocław – 28. Buses are overcrowded, and intervals during peak hours are often 15-20 minutes. People will not switch from cars to buses if they are stuck in traffic.

Moreover, the planned tram line to Wrzeszcz – which could relieve the city centre – was halted in September 2024 due to lack of funding. This means that for the next 3-5 years, there will be no significant investments in rail transport.

Krakow, Warsaw, Wrocław – Who Does It Right?

Gdańsk is not the first Polish city to introduce a Clean Transport Zone. Krakow did so in 2019, Warsaw in 2021, Wrocław in 2023. It is worth looking at their experiences.

Krakow – despite initial social resistance – recorded a decrease in PM2.5 dust concentration in the city centre by 18 percent within two years of the zone’s introduction. The key to success, however, was financial support: the city launched a program of subsidies for replacing old cars with new ones – up to 15,000 zlotys for the poorest families. Over three years, more than 8,000 people benefited from the program.

Warsaw took a different approach: instead of car subsidies, it focused on expanding the metro and electric buses. Within two years, the number of metro passengers increased by 22 percent, and air quality in the centre improved by 14 percent.

Wrocław combined both approaches: car subsidies plus investments in trams. The effect? A reduction in CO₂ emissions by 11 percent within a year.

And Gdańsk? The city has not prepared any subsidy program. The budget for 2025 only provides 2 million zlotys for an “educational campaign on air quality.” This amount is sufficient for a few billboards and radio spots, but disproportionate to the scale of the challenge.

Politics or Populism?

The decision to introduce the Clean Transport Zone sparked a violent political reaction. The opposition Civic Coalition of Gdańsk accuses the current mayor of the city that the resolution is “ecological populism” aimed at gaining points before the local elections in 2026.

– This is facade politics – says councilor Piotr Lewandowski from KO. – We introduce a ban, but we don’t give people the tools to adapt to it. It’s like banning coal burning without offering subsidies for furnace replacement.

The Mayor of Gdańsk, Aleksandra Dulkiewicz, replies that the city has no possibility of financing subsidy programs in the current budget situation.

– Gdańsk has a budget deficit of 340 million zlotys. We cannot afford subsidies that would cost another 200-300 million. We have to operate within what we have – explains the mayor.

But is that a sufficient explanation? Dr. Anna Kowalska, an expert in public finance from SGH, has doubts:

– Cities like Krakow found money for subsidies thanks to EU funds and the National Fund for Environmental Protection. Gdańsk could have applied for similar support, but did not do so in time. Now it is paying for a lack of strategic planning.

What About Small Businesses?

The Clean Transport Zone affects not only residents but also small businesses. Craftsmen, couriers, small entrepreneurs – all use older delivery vehicles, the replacement of which costs tens of thousands of zlotys.

Mr. Marek, owner of a small plumbing company, explains:

– I have a Volkswagen Caddy from 2008. It has served me for 16 years, it is efficient, but it does not meet the Euro 4 standard. A new delivery vehicle costs a minimum of 80 thousand zlotys. Where am I supposed to get such money? I will either stop serving customers in the centre or close my business.

According to data from the Gdańsk Chamber of Commerce and Industry, about 1200 small businesses in Gdańsk may be at risk of bankruptcy or significant reduction of operations due to the introduction of the zone.

The city authorities respond that they will introduce special permits for entrepreneurs – a maximum of 50 entries per year to the zone for non-compliant vehicles. But will that be enough?

– A plumber or electrician will not plan to have only 50 assignments in the centre per year – comments Dr. Kowalska. – This solution is cosmetic and does not solve the problem.

The Zone as a Symbol of Greater Change

The Gdańsk Clean Transport Zone is more than just a local regulation. It is a symbol of the tension between two visions of the future of cities: ecological transformation and social justice.

On the one hand, we have undeniable data: polluted air kills. According to a report by the European Environment Agency, in Poland, premature death due to smog affects about 40,000 people annually. Gdańsk, as one of the larger cities, has a duty to act.

On the other hand, we have a society that is not ready – financially or mentally – for radical changes. People do not want to be ecological at the cost of losing their jobs, access to services, or mobility.

Is a compromise possible? Yes – but it requires political courage, strategic planning, and money. It requires subsidies, investments in public transport, dialogue with residents. It requires long-term, not ad hoc, thinking.

A Final Question

Is Gdańsk introducing a Clean Transport Zone because it truly wants to improve air quality? Is it doing so because it has to – under pressure from the European Union, WHO reports, and environmental organizations? Or is it merely a political gesture before the elections?

The answer will only be known in a year, when the zone becomes operational. Then we will see if air quality actually improves. We will see how many residents lose the ability to commute to work. We will see how many businesses fail.

And above all – we will see if Gdańsk was ready for such a change.

Meanwhile, the residents of Wrzeszcz are waiting. In traffic jams. On buses. In old cars that will become illegal in a year.

Source: https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20251215/manresa-gana-habitantes-llegan-barcelona-124794282

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